This is how the arrival of 300,000 Russian soldiers will change warfare

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Strictly speaking, Vladimir Putin has only two options after the collapse of the Kharkov front and continued partisan attacks on Kherson and Melitopol. One is a partial withdrawal, at least from southern territories, as a gesture of goodwill in the face of possible negotiations that would give the territories annexed in 2014 legal status.the other is Announcing a more or less mobilization of the Russian populace in an attempt to reverse the military dynamics on different fronts. While we all hoped he would choose the former, no one would be surprised to hear the latter.

If we put aside our belongings, that is, Countless threats to use nuclear weaponswhich must be understood more as an insider message to its people than a real threat to the West – if you’re going to strike with a nuke, the last thing you want is to announce it on TV -, Putin’s decision appears to be leading us into a long war Because, contrary to the thinking of many Kremlin enthusiasts, it seems that the announcement of new troops and Endorsement to this week’s referendum Next in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye, point to a Russia’s new phase of more self-defense than attack.

Sending in hundreds of thousands of untrained recruits – some because they didn’t train; others because they had just finished their military service, and the rest because they had fought in a totally different war – leading the way Most were executed. In this sense, it will take a while for Russia to have new battalions that are well-prepared, well-equipped, efficient, and have enough morale and courage to carry out near-suicidal missions. Let’s remember, we’re no longer talking about professionals or volunteers, we’re talking about people of military age who were sent to the front lines against their will.

[Estos son los 300.000 reservistas que Putin envía a la guerra: menores de 35 años y bajo pena de prisión]

During that time, the normal thing is Ukraine – it can also go on to send hundreds of thousands of people to the front, the difference is that its general mobilization has been going on for seven months and a large part of the training is carried out by NATO specialists – Stay active.You’re better off taking advantage of any weakness in the middle Chaos in Russian troops expected in coming weeks Because later, you have to admit, it’s going to be complicated.

improvised army

What exactly is Putin’s intention for this partial mobilization? we do not know.This proverb We’ve heard it a thousand times: “Liberate the Donbass from Nazi repression”. very good. Now they are left with explaining to us what they were doing in Kherson and Zaporozhye and why they still wanted to free them from the Nazis who were apparently not in Kharkov, according to their account, they From there “a strategic retreat in recent weeks”. It’s all nonsense, and it’s hard to find coherence.

Russian troops in the Ukrainian war.

European Press

Let’s not try. Putin is buying time by sending these 300,000 soldiers — a figure given by his defense minister Sergei Shoigu, so it may be fake. If it turns out that, for whatever reason, things are going well and they are able to reconquer what was lost in Kharkov, complete the invasion of Donetsk, and at least capture Zaporozhye before announcing annexation, then Great. Now, he probably knows that his upgrade will cause the other party to upgrade. That is, the United States and NATO will field increasingly precise weapons. The February 24th-style offense is now completely beyond his reach.

That said, Putin’s alternative is defensive: in effect, these Russians will act as makeshift troops in the annexed provinces. They will be retaining walls. On its own, this may sound like a little, but it’s not: If the war continues along the same path, Russia is at serious risk of losing everything it gained in 2014.. In principle, by overpopulating the front, it guarantees better defense of what has already been conquered. Ukraine has enough manpower to defend itself effectively, but not enough to launch a new counteroffensive against such a large army. The price to pay will be very expensive.

If Putin is serious about it, and he appears to be, he will face months of red tape. It’s not just a question of militarily defending territory, but organizing it. Right now, between the drop of the missile and the act of sabotage, that kind of organization is out of the question. Another thing is how much it will cost Russia to maintain the four new provinces, rebuild them from the rubble and have these three hundred thousand people there to defend the territory. On the one hand the Russian economy has not collapsed, on the other there is a surplus.

China doesn’t want to keep paying

in some meaning, China urges both sides to negotiate as soon as possible to end conflict. It is clear that in Beijing they will continue to support Putin’s crusade against the West…but it is also clear that they are starting to get tired of paying his bills.When we talk about China, we are talking about a country with its own territorial conflict and zero Covid-19 policy, which is unique among large economies, which is put the country on the brink of recession. No one cares if the war continues. For China, even more so.

In principle, Putin shouldn’t get too excited either, but he’s proud of it, which is no small thing when talking about megalomaniacs. Enough to destroy the world because they wouldn’t let him stay Lisichansk? I do not think so. Enough to keep playing red and double down to show he never lost? OK. However, any such decision has its risks:Part of the mobilization will cause deep unrest among the Russian population, in all its layers. First, because many people will get rid of it because of who they are, there will be enormous, more or less buried anger. Second, because those who are not free will go to things like mortals. Third, because we get back to the economics: 300,000 people will leave their jobs to serve in the military.

All of this leaves a dangerous breeding ground. There was a belief that nothing could be done about dictators until their sudden fall. Few people die peacefully in their beds. Neither Gaddafi nor Mubarak expected to be overthrown in the early 2010s; nor did the ayatollahs anticipate the current protests in Iran. Suppression works until it stops working. Until the army itself felt that its future was in danger and its companions died for no apparent reason, instead of going back to the days of the Russian Empire, Kremlin shames country in front of foreigners. That’s when things change. day to day. If this isn’t Putin’s last letter, it seems it is.

Russian-Ukrainian War

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