The question is whether there will be a recession in the US.


Investors are concerned about inflation and the focus is on the economic outlook, so we decided to analyze a number of economic and financial issues affecting the environment.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has released its estimate, based on GDPNow, which predicts a -2.1% contraction in the second quarter. If this happened, then the second quarter would be negative, which would technically show that the economy is in recession.

Today, for the second day in a row, a dangerous inverted yield curve has materialized in US Treasuries. US 10-year bonds closed at 3.01%, below 2-year US Treasuries which closed at 3.03%; As we have said in the past, an inverted yield curve is a historical warning sign that an economy has slipped into recession.

While the outlook for the second half of 2022 is still unclear, Birling Capital expects the US to avoid a recession and we also expect Wall Street to end 2022 with a profit.

Federal Reserve Bank Gross Domestic Product Forecast: Federal Reserve Banks GDP Forecast:

2022 1.7%,

2023 1.7%,

2024 by 1.9%.

Oil price: Oil, which fell nearly 12% yesterday from its 12-week high on fears of a global recession materializing, is up today.

West Texas Intermediate closed today at $102.30 vs. $102.30. $110.05, down 7.04% from yesterday.

Brent oil: today it closed at $104.20 against $104.20. $113.80 from yesterday, down 8.43%.

Labor Market: The number of vacancies in the US in May remains high – 11.25 million people, while the number of job seekers is only 5.02 million people, the deficit is 55.53%, which supports the rigidity of the labor market. The Federal Labor Department said jobless claims rose to 235,000 last week from 231,000, up 1.73%.

The domestic market is affected by: The global housing market is starting to falter as the Fed raises interest rates. US home sales were down 13.58% year on year. Interest rates on 30-year mortgages rose to 5.70% from 3.02% last year, up 47.01%. U.S. mortgage lending fell to $892.66 trillion, down 6.43% from the previous quarter ($954.00 trillion) and down 34.22% from $1.357 trillion a year ago.

World economic projection by 2022 it will decrease from 4.1% to 2.9%. The war between Russia and Ukraine is bringing the world closer to a global war and a humanitarian crisis that has caused a sharp slowdown in economic growth. Harmful global surges are exacerbating pandemic-related stresses, including supply disruptions and rising inflation. Global growth is projected to slow from 5.7% in 2021 to 2.9% in 2022 and 3% in 2023-2024. Soaring inflation and the rapid pace of monetary tightening have had a strong impact on economic growth.

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