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The German victory of Scholz, the Social Democratic Party threatened by the volatility of polls

If you like population earthquakes, Germany This is your country.Few people praised democracy Just like the Spaniards, within five years, a sufficient number of Polypropylene To the leader We can with citizen In the investigation of the latter’s partial or complete collapse, to improve PSOE To power. It seems that soon after, Polypropylene with sound They will be able to more or less form a solid government, thereby closing the circle. All of this, I insist, in five years.

Because the Germans do everything faster and more efficiently, their earthquakes will not last for five years, but five months. In April, there was no further progress, and everything was directed towards the environmental protection government. thisgreen They are back.Party by AnnalenaBelbok Leading the polls by an average of three points CDU/CDUIn the downward line of the past 15 years, socialists are ranked very remote third, and their government counterparts have exceeded 12 percentage points (15.7%) for most of the government’s time. used to beSchroeder, The last prime minister of the Social Democratic Party.

In a country where natural disasters are frequent and attract media attention, green emergencies make sense. Germany has been at the forefront of environmentalism since the 1960s and 1970s, when the movement was still in its infancy in other parts of the world. However, thisgreen Not only did they never win a federal election, but they did not even have more than 10% of the popular vote.Suddenly, the polls gave him a 28.1%, Three times higher than the results achieved in 2017. It was a huge success.

The Rise and Fall of Lashette

Now, success, or its perception, is short-lived.this CDU, Who has ruled Germany For fifty of the past seventy years, he seems to be AminRaschelt. Already the President democracyChristianityRashet was selected as the leader of the list in April, and opinion polls are full of enthusiasm for him. Suddenly, the expelled CDU was back on track: in May, he was already the highest-rated candidate in the polls. In June, all it did was to consolidate its advantages… In July, its popularity reached its peak: an average of 31.5%, 10 percentage points higher than Los Verdes, and 15 points higher than socialists who have not yet started. percentage point.

this GermanyEcologist, Germany’s concern about climate change has given way to GermanyConservative, “It’s better to keep it as it is” German, continuist.Recognized AngelaMerkel During his 16 years in power, Raschelt was placed in front of the chancellor in an election that he could only lose: inertia and tradition were in his favor, a mixture that was rarely distorted… Shett was distorted. During the week of July 15, a series of lHeavy rain caused chaos Europecentral Especially in certain areas of the Rhineland.

Election posters in Germany.

Reuters

The balance is devastating: only in Germany 184 deaths The whole town was flooded.The whole country was shocked, first it was Merkel herself, and second it was the president. Steinmeier -By the way, SPD- and members of all federal and regional authorities. Except for one: AminRascheltOf course, in front of the camera, Lashet tore his clothes, promising to help and mourn the death. He did not expect a video showing him laughing out loud in the condolence speech of the President of the Republic. Laughter elections may cost you.

Baerbock and allegations of plagiarism

This is a combination of clumsy and provocative exercises. Public figures must know that one of his duties is to maintain a good image. Distractions are not allowed. Now, whatever the circumstances that led to Rashet’s relaxation at the time, it is clear that it has nothing to do with the tragedy itself. For the most ridiculous reason, he rarely laughed at a funeral as much as at a funeral. The opposition was slaughtered: Raschelt laughed at the victim, Raschelt thought the dead was a joke… etc.

efficient. In the next month and a half, the CDU/CSU lost ten percentage points in the polls. A little more than the six and a half he made in the first two months. The logical thing is that the biggest beneficiary will be Los Verdes de Baerbock. After all, all this is caused by a natural tragedy and ghost. Changeclimate He flew over all speeches. However, Belbok has also fallen out of favor: even though his party is still large (hovering around 15% in opinion polls), AllegationsFromPlagiarism What she had to face in these months was people chasing her everywhere.

On June 21, the candidate published a book titled now.How do we update our countryA few days later, it was found that it was full of data and analysis previously published in different reports, without corresponding citations or references. The reaction of Baerbock and Los Verdes was ordinary: deny everything and resort to coincidence. After all, comments on public data may be consistent, right? German voters don’t think so, they are always picky about these things. Belbok has lost the trust of millions of potential voters and cannot regain it. Who benefits from that troubled river? Socialist candidate, OlafSchultz.

Schultz, the one who has been there

maybe OlafSchultz Is a stranger in Spain, but certainly not in Germany, Where he has been working on the front lines of politics for more than two decades.Secretary General Social Democratic Party As early as Schroeder’s era, Schultz became one of the prominent faces of different “centralized governments.” AngelaMerkel. Banned by some radicals on the left, who thought he was “selling” Neo-liberalismA nouveau riche who only understands power, Schultz has served as minister in different Merkel governments and is currently the same as the deputy prime minister, except Minister of Finance, After serving as mayor for several years hamburger.

On August 20, 2020, when Social Democratic Party He decided to appoint him as a candidate. What he did was to support the possibility of reaching a new understanding with the CDU without an absolute majority.Schultz never regarded himself as prime minister, let alone as thisgreen They began to stand out in public opinion polls with this virulence. The feeling is that, like Taylorland, he can go from Merkel’s deputy prime minister to Belbok’s deputy prime minister without flinching. His party achieved the worst result in history (20.51% of the votes) in the 2017 election, but barely exceeded 15% in the polls.

Between Laschet’s continuity and Baerbock’s revolution, Scholz seems to have no room…until fate and the clumsiness of others provide him with a unique opportunity. In anxiety, Schultz claimed to be a candidate for the government and Merkel’s true successor. Aren’t many of the policies implemented in the past 16 years belong to yours? Isn’t his relationship with the prime minister very good? Nostalgia enveloped voters, and suddenly, Schultz’s supporters emerged from the stone.

The lead is too short

June 28, just before the plagiarism accusation against Baerbock and two weeks before the flooding Rhineland, Schultz The Social Democratic Party’s vote in the polls is about 16%, and their only role in these elections seems to be to choose which partner to support. Less than three months later, that is, ten days before the election, they were ahead of the average poll with 28% of their willingness to vote, 5 percentage points higher than the CDU and 10 percentage points higher than the CDU. thisgreenThe omelette was completely upside down in one summer.

Does this mean that Schultz will win the election tomorrow? no more, no less.Which means it is favorite In an environment that is too fickle. Too many people change too many ideas in too short a time. This makes the survey very unreliable.That didn’t Continuity, There is no sustainable trend. There are many doubts up and down. In addition, of course there is the distribution of seats—in this sense, the German electoral system is one of the highest in Western democracies—and the negotiation of the majority in the Bundestag.

If Scholz wins, he will have two ways: remind CDU 16 years of direct and indirect support for Merkel and compensation…or choose to shift clearly to the left, depending on the result thisgreen To re-sign the agreement Schroeder-Fisher 1998. This seems to be the most likely choice, because the former Communists dieLinkThey rarely support the government of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Merkel. Rashet’s situation is more complicated: he needs to win elections, and the red and green majority will not pay for the formation of a government.Even so, he will have to rely on liberals and maybe AfDThis is the far-right party that Merkel has denied since its establishment in 2010, and it can now become the key to the country’s governance.

The latest opinion polls show that this gap has narrowed again.The survey announced by the TV network this Friday RTL Put the top three candidates in eight positions. Scholz still leads (25%), but has Laschet 3 points, which is within the margin of error. Will we participate in the 10th earthquake that coincides with election day? It is impossible to rule out.It seems clear that in the most tense election since 2002, every vote and every seat will count, and strangely the last election AngelaMerkel Not as a candidate.

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