Can a conflict be regarded as a civil war, in which one party wants to end the state shared with the other party? This is the situation in Afghanistan and the reason why Western messages about the Taliban have appeared in recent weeks. Getting warmer.
Attack on Kabul Airport on August 26 Among them, 170 civilians and 13 American soldiers were killed, opening a new diplomatic dynamic: now, the Taliban, friends of Mullah Omar, public beheading, the abolition of human rights and the violent oppression of women are no longer so bad. Why? Because it turns out there is something worse.
In 2015, a group between One thousand and two thousand fanatical Taliban In order to fight against the enemies of the United States every day and be attracted by the glorious moments of ISIS—the same year, the Islamic Caliphate of Abu Bakr Baghdadi controlled most of Syria and Iraq, reaching a scale similar to that of the United Kingdom—they decided Defected the Afghan liberation struggle and accepted internationalist jihadistism.When the rest of the militia continued to fight with the few weapons available to Al Qaeda or weapons still taken from the Russians in the 1980s, the so-called Islamic State-K He chose another strategy: indiscriminate terror.
For these few Taliban, an example to emulate is the attacks they see in Europe or the United States almost every month: they have to fight against the people. It is necessary to lead the neighbor through absolute fear until he surrenders. ISIS-K (Islamic State of Khorasan Province, also known as ISIS-KP in some areas) is not against this or that regime, but against this or that regime. Oppose the constitution of the independent country of Afghanistan.
Not only the Taliban Looks soft -Their relationship with Qatar, their negotiations, their Westernized discourse over the years-they seem to pose a threat to the spread of Islam. Since there is no American army to attack—as many as 250 attacks have occurred in Pakistan and Afghanistan in the past six years—your enemies have become the new government and its supporters.
Believe in the entire empire
It is estimated that ISIS-K currently has about Three thousand armed menCompared with thousands of Taliban, they are a minority. The quality of their weapons is also poor. Since the US arsenal will actually be completely in the hands of the enemy, its starting point is one of the obvious weaknesses. Now, they have lost in quantity and precision, and they are eager to recover from the cruelty. This has always been the slogan of ISIS, and it has been even more so since the United States assassinated Al-Baghdadi (Al-Baghdadi) and beheaded him in October 2019.
Just like the situation with Al-Qaeda at the beginning of this century, Bin Laden had to care more about hiding than coordinating. ISIS does not exercise full control over most partner organizationsAll they have to do is take an oath of allegiance to the Caliph, and then they will automatically join a group that includes Asian or African militias Lone wolf In Europe and the United States. Therefore, the loyalty of these extremists is not loyalty to Afghanistan or Islamic law, but to the political ideals of the Caliph, that is, an imperialist Islamic state that crosses national borders and eliminates intermediate forces.
His struggle with the Taliban is not to make a different government the head of state, but to eliminate the country and turn it into a larger province. It is this imperialism and this desire to conquer that makes them even more dangerous in the eyes of the West. In a somewhat evil and morally mean calculation, people might think that if you support the Taliban, you will get tens of millions of Afghans into trouble… But if you let the Taliban fall into followers of the Islamic State Hands, Threat spreads across the planet…No one likes to feel threatened.
Islamic State on the Geopolitical Committee
In any case, ISIS is really not what it used to be. His power, in the middle of the past ten years, was very extensive and very dangerous. Now more limited, Eroded by the continuing strategic attacks of the United States and the need to cover too many territories and therefore deal with too many local disputes. In addition, unlike the Taliban, the imperialist impulse of the Islamic State does no good to Russia or China. Except for certain chiefs who continue to use dollars to satisfy their dreams, he has no allies.
In principle, all of this forced ISIS-K to choose a desperate strategy. This is terrible news.A sort of “Desperate Tactics” It was standing near the Kabul airport and killing anyone who committed suicide attacks in advance. The more the better. The more terror, the more propaganda. The more advertisements, the stronger the sense of success and the stronger the ability to attract. For a long time, US intelligence agencies have been warning these people to infiltrate the Taliban militia. We insist that it is wrong to regard the Taliban government as the least structural thing… and the lack of structure is its current main weakness.
The Taliban’s inability to concentrate on anything could be Used by some ISIS-K factions Alliance with the “warlords” who actually still dominate large areas of the country, forming a parallel force. Of course, this alliance can only start with threats, from “How much do you cherish your life and inner peace?” Before someone who can end your existence effortlessly at the expense of yourself appears.We already said Master-slave dialectics Explain why the Taliban successfully defeated the official Afghan army without too much trouble, and now the same thing can be repeated between the Caliph and Taliban supporters…but the other way around.
Unnecessary and dangerous bleaching
Another perfidious consequence of this open confrontation, which in principle should grow over several months, is the above-mentioned fact that the West may consider the Taliban as an ally. Or, more precisely, as the lesser evil. The doctrine of “little evil” is very common in politics, especially in diplomatic relations. But it is very dangerousThe “jihadists” are the lesser evil against Soviet communism, because the Islamic militias are opposed to Saddam Hussein’s arrogance in Iraq. The Taliban and Islamic caliphs originated from these strategic supports.
Realizing that ISIS is a hell on earth and fighting them by land, sea and air, it should not lead the West to Tolerance to the TalibanThe differences are small. In the field of geopolitics, they are measured by threat capabilities: we know that the followers of the Caliph are a threat in Kabul, Orlando, Barcelona or Paris, and we believe the Taliban are not. Now, when we talk about terrorists, “trust” does not seem to be enough. The idea that the Taliban government is committed to the minimum is absurd. You will not become a Taliban who ends up negotiating with “infidels”.
The Taliban will continue to do what they have been doing: Evil, no nuance. The other thing is that they have learned to market their products to us pretty well. They seem to have done it, with some success. With the deportation of all journalists who are still fighting, and the country returns to the darkness of the 1990s, we will see the true colors of these murderers.
Sometimes, in a war, if no one wins, so much the better. I think the third choice is the opportunity. The problem is all the way and eventually covering every inch of blood. For Afghans, very difficult times are coming. Giving up their destiny is not a moral issue, but a strategic issue. Uncontrolled Afghanistan is a cauldron waiting to explode. No one wants more dilapidated buildings.