The Balearic and Canary Islands will lead the growth in 2023, according to BBVA – EFE News

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Madrid (EFE).- The Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands will lead growth in 2023, according to BBVA Research, which also forecasts accelerations from the second half of next year in the autonomous communities that produce capital goods and automobiles, and with exports to Europe and able to benefit more from the impetus of European funds.

In this sense, the BBVA Regional Observatory published this Thursday points out that the strongest upward revisions in 2023 will concern the Basque Country, Navarre and Galicia, while the rest of the northern municipalities will be close to the average growth of the region. Spain next year. surpass or equal it by 2024.

According to this analysis by BBVA Research, in 2022 the Balearic and Canary Islands also improve their forecasts thanks to the increase in tourism, especially in the first half of the year, already above the levels of 2019.

Exports show better data in the fourth quarter, as does employment, which is also helping household spending to resist, so growth in Murcia and Castile-La Mancha, Madrid, Madrid is also revised upwards, Castile and León, Catalonia, Galicia and Navarre.

Andalusia, the Valencian Community and Extremadura do not show any surprises in their evolution, partly because the Next Generation funds have not yet accelerated sufficiently.

The slow improvement in exports of goods, affected by the bottlenecks that limit the activity of the industrial sector, prevents improving the forecasts for Aragon, Cantabria and the Basque Country for this year which is coming to an end.

The combination of the two factors leads to a reduction in the growth expected for this year in Asturias and La Rioja.

According to this study by BBVA Research, “the risks continue to be numerous”, among which “possible wage tensions and limitations in the availability of human capital” stand out, especially in northern Spain, as well as the competitiveness tourism in the Mediterranean coastal region and island communities, and the risks related to the financial burden in the southern regions.

The following table presents, by autonomous community, the GDP growth forecasts for 2022, 2023 and 2024:

2022 2023 2024

Andalusia 4.3 1.0 3.0

Aragon 3.3 1.0 3.5

Asturias 3.2 0.6 3.0

Balearic Islands 9.9 2.4 2.8

Canary Islands 10.3 2.1 2.9

Cantabria 3.3 1.1 3.3

Castile and Leon 3.2 0.9 3.1

Castile-La Mancha 4.2 0.9 3.3

Catalonia 4.7 1.3 3.6

Extremadura 3.5 1.2 3.2

Galicia 3.6 0.5 3.4

Madrid 5.1 1.7 3.8

Murcia 4.3 0.7 3.2

Navarre 3.8 0.7 3.7

Basque Country 3.5 0.8 3.4

La Rioja 3.5 1.2 3.6

C. Valencian 4.3 1.0 3.4

Spain 4.6 1.2 3.4

EFE

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