Siege of Taiwan: the fuse that detonated the impossible World War III


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“Solving the Taiwan issue and accomplishing the great cause of the reunification of the motherland is a historical mission and an unshirkable promise.” Who says this is not a propagandist or an angry Twitter.Who said it-who said it on July 1st, which coincides with the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China-is neither greater nor less than Xi Jinping, The party’s general secretary, and therefore the chairman of mainland China.

As part of a conflict that lasted for more than seventy years, the comment was somewhat ignored at the time. After a busy week in the Pacific, today he returned to us.

The first thing you might want to remember is what Jinping means by “unification”. After all, both parties claim to be the heirs of the Chinese Empire and take this name as their own.The difference is Communist ChinaThe People’s Republic of China has an area of ​​nearly 10 million square kilometers, and the nationalist China is known as Republic of ChinaNo more, or Chinese Taipei, if you like sports a lot-there is almost no 35,808 on the island of Taiwan. More than 1.4 billion people live in the first, and more than 23 million in the second.

Chinese President Xi Jinping.


The big man has not eaten the boy for seven years, which is a miracle in itself. Sooner or later, he will try. This is something that everyone, including the Taiwanese themselves, has a certain fatalistic expectation. In a recent survey, 45% of citizens He admitted that if there is a communist invasion, they will leave the country or get used to new policies… But under no circumstances will they defend the independence of their country by putting their personal safety at risk.

“East Asia’s biggest threat”

The new tension between the two countries is more than just a statement at a rally. In your annual safety report, Japan In the summer of the same year, he recognized the potential conflict between the two countries and the power status of the two countries People’s Republic of China In the face of the indifference of other democracies, this is “the greatest security threat in East Asia.” Let us remember that Communist China not only has more resources and more weapons than other countries. Taiwan On the contrary, its technological expansion may wipe out its competitors from the market it has dominated for decades.

Jinping may not need to send troops to destroy the Kuomintang.Just follow Flood them financially And believe that its status as an economic power makes everyone stay away.The apology of legendary actor John Cena is still the most recent Fast & Furious Wrestling with the American star, only mentioned that the nationalist China is an entity independent of the mainland. The producer was under so much pressure that he apologized to the sound technician there.

It seems that the People’s Republic of China is waiting for you Taiwan cooks under its own discouragement. That has always been a prosperous country and defender of democracy and freedom, finally succumbing to the evidence of quantitative superiority…and the Communist Party can enter the island as a “savior” for the first time since 1949, rather than as an “enemy.” .

Most neighbors feel this way, and it makes them worry Theresa MayThe former British Prime Minister worried that the lack of response of the international community in this situation created a painful precedent…but at the same time warned that overreaction could lead to a war with unpredictable consequences.

Impact of the Aukus Agreement

Why does Theresa May now say this in the House of Commons in September 2021?Why this suddenly attracted people’s attention Conservative Party The British are engaged in Taiwan affairs?The answer is Recent defense agreements between Australia, the U.S. and the U.K., The baptized name Okus, Which means cooperation between the three countries on intelligence and technology issues. In addition, these two Atlantic powers have provided Australia with a large number of aircraft and nuclear submarines that are almost impossible to detect. Among them, May and most international experts have seen warnings to make concessions to the People’s Republic of China. Under your pressure.

Before Joe Biden announced the deal between

Before Joe Biden announced the deal between “Okus” and Boris Johnson on the screen.


Of course, this deal angered Xi Jinping…Though not so much France, Almost closed its own arms sales Australia Now he has to find a new buyer amidst the cries of “treason”! And the dramatic appeal to his allies’ so-called “backstab”.Although Boris Johnson Claiming that arming Australia has nothing to do with the China-Taiwan crisis (in fact, it is difficult to see Australians defending Taiwan’s territorial integrity), Mei continued to fly in her ears.

In recent days, as many as 19 communist Chinese aircraft have flown over the restricted area. Taiwan, Although it did not actually violate the airspace of neighboring islands. Are you sure those submarines are not guarding the strait when the pressure is greatest? Are you sure this is not Joe Biden’s way to appease Japan and Taiwan, saying “we are here, we will not leave you alone”? In this case, considering the consequences of everything becoming complicated, one behavior will eventually lead to another, and the Communist invasion will eventually degenerate into a war with Japan, Australia and its Western allies. Isn’t this reasonable?

No conflict of interest

Honestly, this looks complicated.In all the scenarios that can be started Third world war, This may be the most reasonable, but also far away. No one wants to throw nuclear missiles around in the name of some abstract value. If half of Taiwanese are unwilling to fight for their country, imagine how many Australians are fighting for this job.The most normal thing is People’s Republic of China Never attack Taiwan militarily, but one day, at some point, absorb it, not more, as it did to the British colonies of Shanghai and Hong Kong.

But even in the worst-case scenario, if you use a bravado to “resolve Taiwan and ask them if they are interested in respect… then everything will return to normal bit by bit. We are not in the 1950s or 1970s.” Taiwan can now be sacrificed on the geopolitical boardOf course, some people will say that Austria or Sudeten was the same in the 1930s, and it was difficult to stop once the invasion began.

You will be right, but, just like then, the world will wait for the next step. And the most normal thing is that it did not arrive. The giant will be fed and rest in peace. Their battles are now different, no tanks or battleships are needed. Propaganda and threats will eventually have the same effect.


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