The signal from omicron is worrying.Prove that this is the situation in life Denmark, Covid cases with new variants double every two days. This Nordic country is the second country in the world with the largest number of Euromicron cases after the United Kingdom, and it is now breaking its daily record of infections every day.
Prime Minister of Denmark, Matt Frederickson, Said on Friday that with the advent of the new version, “the rules of the game have changed.” Had it not been for the fact that more than 11,194 infections were reported in Denmark on Friday, which is a new record since the beginning of the pandemic, his fatalism may be considered an exaggeration.
Since the variant is the protagonist of Denmark, the answer to the omicron expectation question may be there. A country where people have been vaccinated, and 80% of immune populationAfter a year and a half of the pandemic, it is now submerged in the most serious wave of infections.
The forecast for Denmark shows the worst that can be expected. Although it is hoped that this variant will be milder than previous variants and make the pandemic easier to control, predictions indicate that a wave of infections is sweeping the country and will cause an unprecedented blow.
Washington post Interviewed an epidemiologist Tyra grove klaus, The head of the Statens Serum Institute, a laboratory that monitors the evolution of pandemics in the Nordic countries. And the researchers did not have good predictions. “Next month will be the toughest month of the pandemic,” Terra Grove predicted.
Scientists are cautious and point out that omicron’s knowledge is still imprecise. In Denmark, they consider different situations, some are more serious and some are more moderate. But even in the intermediate stage, The hospital will collapse like never beforeDanish epidemiologist said.
According to the data they obtained at the Danish Institute led by Tyra Grove, people who received two doses of the vaccine were as susceptible to omicron infection as people who were not vaccinated.
However, those who have received The booster dose does have better protection-An optimistic sign, but as far as Denmark is concerned, three-quarters of people are still waiting for a booster dose. This means that while infections are setting new records day after day, most of the country is in a state of vulnerability. This is the danger and reason why people worry that the hospital system will be overwhelmed. This is why all countries are working hard to speed up vaccination with booster doses.
In the previous winter wave, in early 2021, the occupancy rate in Danish hospitals never exceeded 1,000 patients. But by the beginning of January next year, in the medium term, the hospital may receive approximately 500 patients per day. So the forecast of the Danish National Serum Institute.
In addition to the hospitalization rate, this is the most important indicator to consider, especially when the vaccination rate is high. Contagious. So far, the transmission rate goal of omicron is much higher than vision. In the day before this wave, Denmark had never recorded more than 5,000 cases. More than 11,000 cases were reported on Friday.
A week later, according to the moderate forecast of the Danish Institute, the number reported daily may be 27,000In this laboratory, they were forced to start night shifts in order to be able to analyze all the Covid tests they received.
As the number of infections increased exponentially, Denmark closed bars and restaurants earlier than normal, required citizens to work remotely, and schools closed a week earlier than planned for the Christmas holiday. In addition, the government also decided to close cinemas and theaters on Friday, and Serum Institut’s screenings did not take this measure into consideration.
Danish Control System
Danish forecasts are highly valued worldwide because they are supported by the Coronavirus Surveillance System, which is designed for an era like today, when the virus and the overall situation have changed.
Denmark is One of the most tested countries in the worldFor example, its per capita test rate is seven times that of the United States. In addition, all tests are free for citizens and travelers.
The system is as follows: all the tests performed are sent to the National Serum Institute and another center on the other side of the country. The institute’s laboratory analyzes all tests within 24 hours and determines the variants of each case.They also perform gene sequence For some cases, so they can actually see who is infected with whom.
The data they processed at the Danish National Laboratory showed that the hospitalization rate of omicron cases was slightly lower than that of other more dangerous variants, Delta. However, since hospitalization lags behind infection, it remains to be seen whether the current wave will change this dynamic.
As we all know, omicron is making progress on the Delta variant.Until last Monday, the case rate of omicron 26.8%, But only 4.9% a week ago.Respondents in the lab you cited Washington post They said they were “surprised” and scared. Arieh Cohen, a researcher at the laboratory, is pessimistic about the virus: “I can’t help but have a fatalism: we will all be infected.”