Impossible democracy in Sudan: the coup is a mockery of Biden’s diplomacy

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Anything about Sudan Its 45 million inhabitants must start from bloodthirsty Omar Bashir, The omnipotent military leader, imprisoned, tortured and executed his political opponents for thirty years.For a long time, the International Criminal Court has always claimed Bashir when investigating the Darfur genocide. At that time, the support of the “Janjauid” (Arab ethnicity) by the government and the armed forces in the territorial war against black neighbours sparked surroundings. Four hundred thousand dead After four years of massacre, the United Nations was forced to intervene.

In 26 years of its 30-year dictatorship, the sultan chose to cooperate with Al Qaeda and the confrontation with the United StatesSince the government decided in 1993 to grant Osama bin Laden asylum before he found more favorable land in Afghanistan, Sudan has been included on the list of countries that promote terrorism. You cannot do anything with these countries at the cost of sacrifice. Commercial or diplomatic contacts. Confronting the United States and facing sanctions.Originally, of course it was the first attack The World Trade CenterIn 1993, it was organized by Osama, and according to the White House, part of the funding was funded by Bashir.

The shadow of Bashir has always been the driving force behind the civil war in Somalia, terrorist acts in Ethiopia, and all Islamic violence related to the appeal. “African Horn”, Including the battle in Yemen, just across the Red Sea. Osama left, and the Sultan boasted about kicking him out. It is unclear whether this is the case. Before that, they assumed that Carlos the “Jackal” had been extradited and handed him over to the French authorities.

As you can see, in Sudan, Violence and terrorism are a triangle It has been operating as a whole for many years. Hope opened on April 11, 2019, when the army itself rebelled against its commander-in-chief and asked him to step down. Soon after, he was sent to the same prison in Khartoum, where he sent his opponent there.

Double strength and hope

In a movement that is somewhat reminiscent of the Youth Turk movement a century ago, it is surprising that the stated goal of these military coup leaders is not to keep themselves in power for a long time, but to bring democracy to Sudan. It is not entirely a secular democracy, but it is certainly a democracy that has respectful views of religious minorities.

The distribution of power is as follows: there will be a civilian president, Abdullah HamdokIn fact, this will be controlled by the military authorities, and its goal is that the situation will not get out of control. This authority will be reflected in Abdelfattah Burhan, a veteran of the South Sudan War of Independence, who served as a military attache in China for many years, which undoubtedly gave him a certain political image.

The Prime Minister of Sudan Abdullah Hamdok.

Reuters

The formula has worked relatively well for more than two years.Sudan is a poor country Horror is too closeThe elites always seem to be agitated, resist each other and oppose each other. The various ethnic groups try to maintain their power and territory against other hostile forces. Of course, running a powder keg is not easy. However, Hamcock succeeded. For most of 2020, he negotiated with Mike Pompeo and the outgoing Trump administration to remove Sudan from the list of countries cooperating with terrorism. This is a step that must be taken, yes or no, to bring the country back to the surface economically. A painful step has been taken in decades of confrontation with the United States and the West, but it is necessary.

In December 2020, when the elections had already failed, Pompeo accepted and agreed to not only remove Sudan from the unspeakable list and accept the country as a member of the international community, but also to cooperate economically to build a strong democracy. 700 million U.S. dollars Their purpose is to calm the army down and stop working. In this way, there will be no new Bashir to control half of the continent. If you get peace in return, then the money is well spent.

However, Bashir is more than just a man. In other cases, when the leader falls, the entire power structure has collapsed: So Saddam in Iraq; well, Gaddafi in LibyaThis is not the case with Bashir. Bashir is still a respected figure in the army, and his situation is very tense. His supporters were held in the security module and continued to demand that he be released immediately from those who demanded that he be handed over to the government as soon as possible. International Criminal CourtAmong the latter, President Hamdok himself announced this summer that he was willing to allow Bashir to respond to Darfur’s crimes in The Hague. Within a few weeks, he became a victim of a coup.

On October 16, the Sudanese army was in front of the Presidential Palace in Khartoum.

On October 16, the Sudanese army was in front of the Presidential Palace in Khartoum.

Reuters

The role of Jeffrey Feltman

Little is known about that blow. It may not even be the case, but the civilian government’s warning to the military: We know you are doing something. It is said that they are forces related to Bashir and have been detained and controlled. This is in September 2021. Joe Biden immediately took defensive measures. Biden’s relationship with Sudan is curious: when he was a senator from Delaware and had several years of experience, he was a member of a congressional delegation investigating Sudan’s relationship with terrorist organizations. We are talking about 1997, which is 11 years before he was elected Vice President. Won the election of Donald Trump 23 years ago.

Biden knows what is happening in this country and the risks of any changes. status quo Agree with the government of the country’s citizens. If the military regained control of Sudan, it would be like flipping a coin. Will they be friendly, will they seek to fight? Biden realized that something had happened and decided to send Geoffrey Feltman, the US envoy in the region, to the country. Feltman, 62, is one of those lifelong diplomats. In his biography, he has performed missions in communist Europe, Lebanon or Haiti. Go where you need it.

The idea of ​​the Biden administration is to strengthen civil affairs. Hamdock announced a few days ago that by mid-November, dual authority will disappear, and only civil authority will remain, giving way to truly democratic elections. obviously, The military elite did not like this newsFeltman’s job is to make some people understand that rushing is inconvenient… while for others, some changes are inevitable and you have to get used to this idea. In principle, his work is successful. Or it seems so.

On October 27, hundreds of protesters protested against the coup in Atbara, Sudan.

On October 27, hundreds of protesters protested against the coup in Atbara, Sudan.

Reuters

Feltman was in Khartoum on the weekend of October 23-24. He met with representatives from all walks of life. It makes economic and political aid conditional on absolute stability. He listened to it a thousand times and said there was nothing to worry about. No one intends to break this well-functioning balance. Feltman left the country from the evening of Sunday 24th to Monday 25th. A few hours later, President Hamdock and his wife were arrested and sent to an unknown location. They were sent back to their residence the next day and have been unable to leave since.

Unpredictable coup

The arrest of Hamdok and his family was the first step in the coup, which ended in suppression of the government. Almost all of his ministers suffered the same family imprisonment. Some people took to the streets to protest, but they did not know what it was or who they opposed.After the coup, Burhan remains the sole authority and absolute head of state. In the televised speech, military uniforms full of medals, Announcing the establishment of a transitional government And representatives until a possible election in 2023.

What this representation will include, we don’t know. If these elections will be free, it is necessary to doubt them. You will not launch a coup to the civil authorities and then let anyone defeat you in the polls. Of course, this news has not spread throughout the West.Feltman, newly arrived in Washington, announced Stop aid to Sudan immediatelyAfter all, these 700 million people are destined to consolidate democracy, not end it. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Gutierrez and British Minister Vicki Ford both expressed condemnation and called for the immediate release of Hamdock.

At the moment, the only thing we can say about the Sudanese coup is that it seems For those who gave Bashir asideTherefore, they will not be the loyal army of the former dictator. It seems that there is no excessive desire to impose on oneself by force and provoke a new civil war. The army has controlled the security of the country and continues to control it. There were no retaliations, killings or mass arrests. After all, power is still in the hands of those who control it. They just decided to prove it.

On October 21, a man took part in a demonstration holding a Sudanese flag.

On October 21, a man took part in a demonstration holding a Sudanese flag.

Reuters

For decades, Sudan has been one of the world’s hot spots in many respects. Carlos, bin Laden and genocide. Its geo-strategic importance is beyond doubt. If Burhan does not want to return to the most difficult years of international isolation, he must immediately make a credible and direct gesture to the international community. In any case, convince Biden and Feltman to accept assistance and trust him. It couldn’t be worse at first, but we have seen stranger things. Currently, a week after the start of the coup, everything is too close to draw conclusions. At any time, things may develop in unexpected directions.

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