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IMF chief economist expects energy prices to fall in early 2022-子墨新闻

Gita Gopinath, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, believes that rising energy prices will put pressure on households, but should not lead to a crisis similar to the 1970s. He predicts that “the first time between now and 2022 At the end of the quarter, there will be a relaxation.

In an interview with Agence France-Presse, Ms. Gopinat recalled that the global economic recovery was characterized by a strong rebound in demand, which collapsed last year due to paralysis of activities to maintain the spread of the pandemic.

Long, cold winters and particularly hot summers have led to increased demand in the energy sector and depleted inventories, especially European natural gas reserves.

In addition, “this recovery is truly unique,” said economists at the International Monetary Fund. Despite the strong demand, many industries are still struggling to find labor, partly because of fears of infection with Covid that will cause severe disruptions to the global supply chain.

“This shortage has increased price pressure,” economists continue to say in different parts of the world, in Germany, the United States, and Japan.

The whole question is whether this phenomenon will continue or will it be reversed soon.

– The worst situation? ——

“For now, even in the short term, (…) in the winter months, energy prices will remain high, and we expect them to fall again at the end of the first quarter of this year.’Next year and entering the second Three months,” she said.

Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, during an interview with Agence France-Presse in Washington on October 12, 2021 (AFP-PEDRO Ugarte)

However, she acknowledged that the “significant risk” is that another severe winter will lead to “a wider range of blackouts and blackouts, which will have a greater impact on the world.”

“The worst-case scenario is that the winter in the northern hemisphere is particularly harsh and energy demand is soaring. At the same time, we cannot solve the problem of interruption in the production chain,” she believes, and further pointed out that the world is not immune to extreme weather events.

For example, in February last year, severe cold marked by polar temperatures and blizzards caused a surge in electricity consumption in the southern states of the United States.

Texas, with a population of nearly 29 million, has been unable to meet the surge in demand, and hundreds of thousands of homes have been without electricity.

Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, during an interview with Agence France-Presse in Washington on October 12, 2021 (AFP-PEDRO UGARTE)

Gita Gopinath, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund, during an interview with Agence France-Presse in Washington on October 12, 2021 (AFP-PEDRO UGARTE)

However, Ms. Gopinat does not expect crises like the 1970s, because “in general, the world is much less dependent on energy.”

And “for example, the price of natural gas needs to rise sharply to (…) cause (…) stagflation”, that is, very high inflation and stagnant growth, he observed. she.

At present, the market’s attention is focused on the price curve.

On October 6, the benchmark European price of TTF in the Netherlands soared to 162.125 Euros during the European session, setting a record high. This price level is eight times what it was six months ago.

On Monday, a barrel of WTI (American Standard Variety) closed above US$80 for the first time since October 2014.


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