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Russia’s de-escalation of Ukraine’s intentions has taken the world out of a worrisome situation…at least in the short term.If Putin really wants content to consolidate their rule over the Donbass And create a corridor linking it to Crimea to prevent Ukraine from entering the Sea of Azov, making confrontation with NATO radically less likely.
If the “second phase” of its “military operation” will focus solely on securing these objectives, while continuing to disrupt Ukrainian forces as much as possible (multiple attacks on Kyiv and even Lviv this weekend), the West will win.time…and win it the same way Chinawe still know nothing about him in the face of an unprecedented global alert situation over the past six years.
China’s importance at the start of the conflict was minimal, but only to reaffirm its neutrality: it refuse to condemn the invasion At the United Nations…but he endorses the statement of his ambassador to Ukraine that he supports the government in Kyiv.
He openly criticized Western harassment of Russia for causing this, but at the same time Negotiate with the US Twice at the highest level: US Secretary of State Blinken had a phone call with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and two weeks later US President Joe Biden had a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both meetings ended with everyone satisfied.
The problem we Westerners have with China is that we have a hard time controlling the rhythm of it. His calm makes us despair. Just wait until the last minute to open a position. Black cat, white cat.
On March 14, Zhang Jun, the Chinese ambassador to the United Nations.
Reuters
For a week now, the West has had a sense of living on the brink of a nuclear conflict. The Spanish government itself has privately warned that the possibility of a confrontation between Russia and NATO could have unimaginable consequences. Meanwhile, China is on its own.share 3000 km border with Russiabut he does not appear to be disturbed by the fact that Putin is considering the use of strategic nuclear weapons.
The facility that doesn’t get wet even in the shower is laudable, but it can’t last forever. China is committed to making multilateralism the slogan of the new world order. Clearly, for this to happen, it would require the West to give up a significant portion of its influence, and in turn, it would require NATO to have a major enemy in Russia…not Russia itself sacrificing itself in an incomprehensible adventure.
We know Putin is his strategic ally, but we also know that this ally must act minimally complete, instead of warming up like a dictator and threatening everyone who gets in the way with nuclear missiles. The bottom line is that, sooner or later, the person holding you back may be you.
As the Ukrainian war continues under the conventional order (Russia does not need chemical weapons to achieve its new goals, let alone nuclear weapons), China will have time to think about what Putin will do when he strikes again.Because we all take it for granted that he will return to the battlefield and when his army regroups, he will seek to control Kharkiv and Odessa, or he will try again to capture Kyiv…or worse, he will go Moldova, for baltic republicfor Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Poland…then, like it or not, China will have to stop playing two decks.
Unknowns to be resolved
For a man who openly denies everything the West stands for but at the same time EU and US. The West may be the “devil”, but it is a very paying devil. At that time, will China support Putin and may go crazy, or will it have to “sell its soul” to seek a guarantee of stability?
Macron embraced Johnson and Biden, along with Draghi and Erdogan, at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
No one knows the answer, but we can solve some unknowns that will help us better understand what might be going on.
First, let’s remember that what drew China into this conflict was Putin’s request for military assistance. Both sides denied the request, but U.S. intelligence was completely leaked.
Now, are you really here? China Large-scale arms sales, as the West did with Ukraine, and even some equipment transfers to Russia? It doesn’t have any appearance. There has been no official communication about this, nor has the Russian military’s behavior on the ground indicated that it has received external aid, in addition to the Syrian mercenaries and Chechen “volunteers” sent to Mariupol.
Militarily, China refuses to support Russia…but economically, it refuses to support the West. Not only did he not join the sanctions against the Putin regime, he also announced increased purchases of raw materials and food.As we said before, China can’t afford it Russia sinks in humiliation. You need to be strong enough to scare you… We’ve been terrified for a while over the past few days, which brings us to the aforementioned nuclear issue.
How does China view Russia’s public threat to use nuclear weapons? What do you think of the leak of Putin’s alleged plans to use chemical weapons already in Syria? Incredibly, we don’t know. No one commented on this. We know it’s not good for them, we know that so much speculation will set off their own alarms…but they don’t want to comment on it. Complete secrecy is dangerous to a certain extent. If China doesn’t jump in this situation, when will it jump?
petty evil
Another possibility is just the opposite.that period of time Russia and NATO They stand with their chests up on the way to head-to-head, China is negotiating. Xi was talking to Putin, reminding him that all this was unnecessary.Take his Donbas and sell it as the biggest blow since the war Stalingrad and stop the story. He will have time to continue the pressure later. It is even possible that he in turn passed this information on to the United States, which is why the Americans are so convinced to show their power: they know it will have no consequences.
Joe Biden met with Xi Jinping by remote communication at the White House.
It is true that at present, in the new wave of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, I don’t know how to deal with it. Maybe China has put its own problems first. However, as Russia’s primary political partner and the West’s primary economic partner, both sides listen to her and put their own problems first. It was normal for her to keep everything she had to say in her mind.After all, multilateralism includes: you are strong enough enough to influence other superpowers.
The problem is that this raises a very disturbing ethical question: Do we want China to mediate our problems? Are we looking to dictatorships for political favor? The West boasts—and does well—that its moral values, engaging in fair struggle, and defending democracy are the best ways to respect human rights.
In China, there is neither democracy, nor human rights, nor anything like that. This is a party dictatorship seeking international recognition. View. Dealing with China face-to-face, not only for the issue of nuclear deterrence, but because it is less harmful in another conflict, is dangerous. Probably inevitable, but morally debatable. Embracing Xi to avoid Putin hides an unpleasant reality: There is not much difference between the two leaders, and certainly not their respective regimes.
Taiwanese composition?
Let’s go a step further, because secrecy only frees speculation: what if China really has been encouraging Putin to start a hornet’s nest?Of course, this seems unlikely because be opposed to He absolutely respects the country’s policy of territorial integrity, but…if Xi Jinping helps the Russian president to warm up and see how the West really breathes and how solidarity is, how far is he willing to go? …by the way, assess the real military capabilities of your buddy neighbors?
There’s no push, but this disturbing neutrality, this surprising embarrassment… isn’t that just a wait-and-see and then decide what to do with Taiwan? How many nuclear wars can the West fight in a year? We know that Taiwan is the obsession of Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party. They haven’t stopped repeating over the past two years. Now, in the middle of a re-election year, they cannot afford military defeat. They can’t afford their own Ukraine and don’t want to step back from the commercial clout China now has in the world.
Putin’s decision makes China’s leader a very uncomfortable position, but at the same time it helped them understand the pieces on the chessboard: the West is unified. At least to some extent, the West is willing to suffer.
On the other hand, Russia as an ally did not give much. Is Beijing interested in following Russia’s path in order to achieve its economic and political goals, or is it trying to coax Western countries to calm their reaction to a possible attack on Formosa? Sounds like that’s what they’re trying to figure out. calm down. Not in a hurry. To the Chinese when they see who is chasing the mouse, they will be on your side.