China sets its own agenda to turn Taiwan into its specific Ukraine

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one of the things Putin doesn’t seem to count him The process of annexing most of Ukraine It’s their effort Joe Biden and the United States (USA) in Defend a country that’s not even a NATO memberIf Putin has some quick and relatively bloodless ideas, as happened with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, he is clearly wrong. As a result, he has had to recalculate his strategy, as Biden has anticipated in his various public statements. Expectations for the second week of January had to wait more than a month, which meant room for enemy defenses.

Why is the U.S. so resolute in defending Ukraine? If a person is innocent, he may think that he is just trying to maintain the world order and not let the big fish eat the small fish, which is for justice, but how many times has the United States played the big fish on the geopolitical board without much moral consideration? in the middle? The propaganda repeats that Washington wants to corner Moscow through NATO, which is clearly very interested in what happens on its eastern border. Just as Putin doubts the possibility of nuclear missiles on his doorstep, the United States and the European Union (EU) have reason to fear the Russian leader’s nationalist and imperialist delusions.

everything, Some things suggest that more things are at stake nowOf course, Russia is more worried about Biden than Trump, who has always had a very friendly relationship with Putin, but no one explained why. Now, if the White House is worried about anything in its foreign policy right now, it’s the Asia-Pacific. Strictly speaking, what is happening in Europe is a major threat to its European partners. What’s happening in the Pacific is a direct threat.Both Japan and Australia, both strategic allies, are unable to cooperate militarily with the China. There are also two North Korea problems, South Korea desperately needs US support to balance North Korea’s military power.

People pray for Chinese New Year at a temple in Taipei.

Reuters

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and thinking it can do so with impunity is a terrible example of the future.that’s for baltic republic It’s for those in the Caspian Sea – although Putin, after his experience in Chechnya, doesn’t seem to want to know anything about these territories as long as they continue to fight Islamic terrorism.Furthermore, this is first Taiwan, Islands that have resisted People’s China since the end of the civil war in 1949. It’s been 73 years since the Chiang Kai-shek era, Beijing’s constant claim to the former island of Taiwan, ruled by nationalists. That claim has only become more prominent in recent months.

Golden opportunity?

China’s threat to Taiwan predates Russia’s threat to Ukraine.Coinciding with the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, its leaders Xi Jinping He has repeatedly insisted on “resolving the conflict once and for all”. On July 1 last year, Xi Jinping announced: “Solving the Taiwan issue and completing China’s reunification is a historical mission and an inescapable commitment.” On December 31, he bid farewell to the year with this determination: “To realize the complete reunification of the motherland , is the wish of the Chinese on both sides of the strait.”

Although China is not very fond of Russian imperialism – Bear in mind that Russia and China share a 4,133km border, the longest on the planet – not so harsh in their criticism of their desire for Ukraine. This is logical considering they are very similar to Taiwan, the island has experienced different people over the centuries, just like Ukraine, but currently calling itself the Republic of China, there is plenty of reason to attract culture to a political unit unit.

People walk on the streets of Taipei.

People walk on the streets of Taipei.

Reuters

As the world turns its attention to the Donbass and Possible entry into Kiev from Belarus. While every detail of Ukrainian geography and meteorology was discussed in an attempt to determine where and when the ground invasion really began, China may see this as their chance, the attack on Taiwan is difficult to be countered by the United States, which is busy with its “eastern border” and has not sent troops and weapons to the West. Even less than half a year ago, the “Aukus” agreement was signed with Australia to sell them nuclear submarines that could intervene in the event of unrest in the Pacific, but that’s not enough.

Forty-five percent of Taiwanese Chinese said in a recent survey that if the Communist Party invaded, they would simply leave Taiwan or adapt to the new regime. That said, almost half of the country’s population isn’t even willing to defend it. It depends only on the geostrategic interests of others.it feels like this Once China takes the issue seriously, Can be done on the island without too many problems. Sanctions? Yes, but Russia is again a possible umbrella. The BRICS insurgency – perhaps without South Africa – and other possible partners – the Persian Gulf state doesn’t appear to be averse to any good business – coupled with the country’s own economic emergency, could help Xi Jinping as the situation persists Overcome the situation.

regional paradox

What do we now know about the intentions of China’s leaders? In addition to and in line with his claims to Taiwan, Xi Jinping appears to have entered a Putin-like phase in terms of historical revisionism, returning to nationalism in conflict with China’s globalist tendencies in the first part of his term. Of course, the pandemic has exacerbated this trend. China focuses on itselfclosing borders and betting on long prison terms, especially in its westernmost province: Hong Kong.

National territorial integrity has always been one of the unshakable principles of China’s foreign policy, precisely to avoid the emergence of separatist forces in Hong Kong, Tibet or Xinjiang, another little-known hotspot on Earth. Conflicts between Han Chinese and Uighurs continue, and Muslims are victims of centralized repression. However, to Beijing, Taiwan is not a country. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly clarified: Ukraine and Taiwan are not comparable, because what really does not exist is Taiwan. It is normal for neutral observers to interpret it differently.

Many people throw lanterns into the sky during the Lantern Festival in Taipei.

Many people throw lanterns into the sky during the Lantern Festival in Taipei.

Eph

Bob Woodward and Robert Costa, in their book “Dangerous,” recounts a conversation between U.S. Chief of Staff Mark Milley and his Chinese counterpart Li Zuocheng. The conversation came days after the unusual attack on Capitol Hill, with Trump still presiding over the country and China fearing he would do anything outrageous to stay in power. Milley’s role is to appease Zuocheng, just as in the movie Matthew Broderick manages to convince the Soviets and Americans that there is no reason to trigger the Defcon One alarm, Zuocheng believes him and the alarm goes off.

Kim Pyong and his strategists may still be evaluating Biden after Trump’s anomaly. Sure, he’s been called Obama’s vice president, but the vice president and the president can’t be the same person. When the fear and coma pass, it may be time to take the next step. Xi Jinping will not follow Putin’s footsteps religiously Because decision-making autonomy is one of the most valuable values ​​of the Chinese Communist Party. Now, if Putin’s experiment is successful, it is clear that many will call for immediate action.

Thinking so directly of the new war events throughout 2022? This seems unlikely. Communist China will only attack when it has no other choice and is confident that the attack will be successful. A miscalculation will lead to a huge world conflict If it goes wrong, it will cost Xi Jinping his job and undermine China’s consolidation as a global superpower over the past three years. At the same time, the threat remains and will continue to intensify until Taiwan itself throws itself into the mainland’s arms. It’s still the most likely scenario: capture the island without shooting. Another thing is that you can’t. If he doesn’t, let’s prepare for the worst here too.

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